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The
Singularity
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Technological Singularity
Image licensed from iStock.com
The
technological Singularity is the hypothesized creation of
smarter-than-human entities who rapidly accelerate
technological progress beyond the capability of human
beings to participate.
Vernor Vinge originally coined the term
"singularity" in observing that, just as our model
of physics breaks down when it tries to model the
singularity at the center of a black hole, our model
of the world breaks down when it tries to model a
future that contains entities smarter than human.
Vernor Vinge on the Singularity
Approaching the
Singularity
Thinking about the Singularity gives me a headache.
No doubt a reaction to asking my brain to think of ways of
replacing itself. Both intriguing and
frightening, my approach to the Singularity is to treat
it like a dessert tray, the further it is away,
the less I am infatuated by it.
Through the exponential
growth of computer processing power, biotechnology or
other means, futurists have predicted that the Singularity
could arrive as early as 2050.
Here are a few reasons why the
Singularity might arrive later than expected.
Software is Hard
I agree that by
mid-century, hardware or bioware could exist that is capable of
housing a superintelligent entity.
What we will not have by that time, is the software to
utilize it.
Put simply, until they can fix the latest operating system
on my laptop, I'm not worried about programmers
developing a superintelligence.
Brain Swarming
It has been suggested that before scientists understand
the brain well enough to make up their own mind, myriads of "dumb" computers
could be linked together to program themselves into a
superintelligence.
To this scenario, I submit my last family reunion as one
example where adding more brains in the room did not increase the overall intelligence of
the group.
Good Warning, Dave?
Futurists and science
fiction writers are often optimistic when putting a date
on future technology.
2001, A Space Odyssey (1968, Stanley Kubrick & Arthur
C. Clarke).
Need I say more?
Better Me, Then You
What I cannot push past my comfort date, is the enhanced
human brain. It is conceivable that genetics, drugs and/or
brain-machine interfaces, could help create superintelligent humans by
the year 2050. Would you mind terribly, if I go
first?
By the Way
The path to the pinnacle of
humanity is a slippery slope. Is society ready for the
precursive power of the building blocks of the
Singularity--computers, nanotechnology, biotechnology,
artificial intelligence and information?
Everywhere I look I see vanity, greed, hunger and waste (I'm
writing this from a coffee house at the airport.) Undesirable
human traits could fuel global catastrophes, in the
technologically advanced civilization
we are becoming.
Long before the arrival of the Singularity, we will need
to change our ways. A benign, compassionate and sharing
civilization has the best chance to survive the flood of
information and technology that is headed our way.
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The
Singularity Is Near
To appreciate the
nature and significance of the coming "singularity," it is
important to ponder the nature of exponential growth.
Toward this end, I am fond of telling the tale of the
inventor of chess and his patron, the emperor of China. In
response to the emperor's offer of a reward for his new
beloved game, the inventor asked for a single grain of
rice on the first square, two on the second square, four
on the third, and so on. The Emperor quickly granted this
seemingly benign and humble request. One version of the
story has the emperor going bankrupt as the 63 doublings
ultimately totaled 18 million trillion grains of rice...
From
The Law of Accelerating Returns
by Ray Kurzweil.
Isaac
Asimov’s Three Laws of Robotics
Isaac Asimov’s Three Laws of
Robotics are one of the earliest examples of proposed
safety measures for AI. The laws are intended to prevent
artificially intelligent robots from harming humans.
- A robot may not injure a human being or, through
inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
- A robot must obey orders given to it by human beings
except where such orders would conflict with the First
Law.
- A robot must protect its own existence as long as
such protection does not conflict with the First or
Second Law.
Later, Asimov added the Zeroth Law: "A robot may not
harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to
harm"; the rest of the laws are modified sequentially to
acknowledge this.
source:
wikipedia
3 Laws
Unsafe
3 Laws Unsafe is a web site based on the premise that
human-equivalent AIs and robots will one day become
possible, and that Asimov's 3 Laws of Robotics are too
simplistic to ensure a positive outcome.
3
Laws Unsafe
Related links:
Six ways to build robots that do humans no harm
Intelligence
explosion
In 1965, statistician I. J. Good wrote:
“Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine
that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of
any man however clever. Since the design of machines is
one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent
machine could design even better machines; there would
then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and
the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the
first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that
man need ever make. ”
Pros and Cons of Advanced AI
"Advanced AI has the potential to impact every aspect of
human life. We are in a crucial window of opportunity
where we have temporary but powerful leverage to influence
the outcome," said Tyler Emerson, chair of the summit and
executive director of the Singularity Institute for
Artificial Intelligence."
Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
The
World-Wide-Mind Project
The World-Wide-Mind project proposes that
the construction of advanced artificial minds may be too
difficult for any single laboratory to complete.
Singularity Articles and Resources
What is this Singularity?
Acceleration Studies Foundation
Technologies Which May Take Us to Singularity
Surviving the Singularity - YouTube video
Discussion of Vinge's Singularity Concept (1998)
How Long Before Superintelligence?
Tearing Toward the Spike
Surviving Immortality
Openness and the Metaverse Singularity
Intel touts progress toward intelligent computers
Signs of the Singularity
Transcendent Man - Upcoming movie
AI Enters Brave New World - NPR
Expectation of Machine Intelligence Could Change Social
Behavior, Says Economist
Singularity
could arrive as early as 2030
What If the Singularity Does NOT Happen?
Dilbert Discovers the Singularity
Singularity Summit 2008 Reviewed
Singularity 101 with Vernor Vinge
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